Calm Before The Storm
A look at the final pre-writ Polling Canada seat average before the election kicks off
As of this morning, CBC and CTV have both reported that April 28th will be the day Canadians will head to the polls in the upcoming election. That makes for a slightly shorter campaign than the alternative date of May 5th. Nonetheless, Canadians will be voting in over a months time.
So let’s take one final look at the pre-writ polling, model it out, and see where the parties stand going into the election!
The polls have remained stable over the past couple of days, with few new polls coming out since the last seat update. The newest polls we have gotten were from Abacus (CPC +3), Liaison (LPC +2), and Innovative (LPC +2), with Abacus and Nanos now the only pollsters showing the Conservatives with a lead nationally.
On average, the Liberals sit at 39%, while the Conservatives are at 37%. The NDP remains down at 11%, with the Bloc and Greens at 6% and 3%, respectively. The PPC looks incredibly unlikely to be allowed into the debates this election, failing to hit the polling requirement to be considered.
The Liberals maintain a lead in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, and Quebec. They’re also competitive in British Columbia, where the two parties are neck-in-neck.
Alberta remains interesting, with the Liberals 20-points behind the Conservatives, but now polling into the 30s. As the model will show, that spits out a number of Liberal seats in the province.