Carney’s Majority Machine Marches On
Jeneroux crosses the floor, the Bloc and NDP slide, and the Liberal seat ceiling climbs higher
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for February 21, 2026!
This past week saw three new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, and Abacus Data.
Liaison saw the Liberals tick up to 43% (+1 compared to Feb 7), while the Conservatives ticked down to 34% (-1), and the NDP moved up by a point to 10% (+1). The Bloc lost some support to finish at 6% (-1), alongside the Greens at 3% (-1), while the PPC was stable at 2% (-).
Nanos saw the gap narrow, with the Liberals down to 38% (-1 compared to Feb 6), Conservatives up to 37% (+2), NDP down to 11% (-2), and Bloc also down to 8% (-1). The Greens were up to 4% (+1), with the PPC stable at 1% (-).
Abacus saw the Liberals expand to their largest lead in their polling since August 2021, with the Liberals up to 44% (+1 compared to Jan 27), Conservatives down to 37% (-2), and NDP stable at 8% (-). The Bloc was even at 6% (-), while the Greens were up to 3% (+1) and PPC down to 1% (-1).
We also saw a jaw dropping poll from Mainstreet Research in Alberta, which found the Conservatives at 48% (-16 compared to the 2025 election), while the Liberals were up to 45% (+17), and the NDP at 5% (-1).
Overall, the Liberal lead nationally remains steady, while they saw some improvement at the regional level.
The Liberal lead grew in Quebec (+1 compared to last week), while the Conservative lead in Alberta shrunk (-2), alongside their lead in the central prairies (-1).
Liberals and Conservatives are in a dead heat among men, while the Liberal lead among women remains stable. Likewise, the Liberal lead among those aged 18-54 remains the same, while they grew their lead among those over 55 (+1).
Let us take a look at this week’s model and other polls making headlines!
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