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Conservatives Increase Their Vote Share, Says Abacus Data

Conservatives Increase Their Vote Share, Says Abacus Data

Poilievre remains the most favourable leader, while 7-in-10 negatively view Donald Trump

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Curtis Fric
Feb 14, 2025
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Polling Canada
Polling Canada
Conservatives Increase Their Vote Share, Says Abacus Data
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Abacus Data has released new federal polling suggesting the Conservatives are still sitting pretty over their Liberal rivals. Before getting to the latest vote intention, let’s see where each of the leaders are stacking up in the eyes of Canadians.

Pierre Poilievre remains the most favourable candidate of the three, with his positive rating sitting at 39%. Meanwhile, his negative rating sits at 42%, giving him a net-favourable of -3%.

Jagmeet Singh is second in the pecking order, with a positive rating of 29% and a negative rating of 40%. With the NDP’s leader resting at a net-favourable of -11%, this is reflective of the dip the party is taking in the polls.



Justin Trudeau, while soon seeing his tenure as Liberal leader coming to an end, still has at 23% positive rating and a negative rating of 58%, giving him a net-favourable of -35%.

The new US President, Donald Trump, is almost universally disliked by the Canadian public. Only 18% of Canadians have a positive opinion of the US President, while 69% have a negative one, giving Trump a net-favourable rating of -51%.


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Abacus also asked Canadians who they believe is going to win the next federal election slated for this year. The Conservatives maintain the lead, with 51% of Canadians saying they’re most likely to win, while only 20% say the Liberals will.

While it’s still an overwhelming margin for the Conservatives, this is down 12-points from their peak of 63% back in mid-January. Likewise, the Liberals are up from their lowest result of 10% during the same period.



Only 6% of Canadians believe the NDP are likely to win the next federal election, and nearly a quarter (23%) are unsure who is likely to win.

With that out of the way, let’s dive into the newest numbers from Abacus Data and model it out.


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