E-24: Holding The Line
Federal polling remains steady as markets plunge after Trump's "Liberation Day" announcements
Here’s your election update for April 3, 2025!
We received one poll today with Innovative (CPC +1), alongside the three tracker updates from Mainstreet (LPC +4), Liaison (LPC +8), and Nanos (LPC +9).
Because we’re between full samples for the trackers (I update those into the averages every 2-3 days), the only poll added into the averages today is Innovative.
Innovative is an outlier in the sense that it’s the only poll we have with the Conservatives ahead nationally. As we dig into the numbers, much of the improvement we see in the Innovative poll comes from increased Conservative vote shares in Alberta (65%), Ontario (41%), and British Columbia (40%).
Interestingly, those numbers are more akin to what we were seeing when they were polling ten points or more ahead in the polls. With the Tories at 65% in Alberta, that would be a much more traditional vote share for the party.
Likewise, a dead heat with the Liberals in Ontario helps the Conservatives in the averages, yet even in a dead heat, the Liberals are much more likely to win more seats.
This poll helps to pull the Liberals back below 200 seats, so let’s take a look at it, and check in on other interesting data from the last day!