E-28: Conservatives Tied With Their 2021 Election Result
Despite being up three-points nationally from their 2021 finish, the Conservatives are still sitting at 119 seats on the model
Here’s your election update for March 30, 2025!
We had a number of new polls today, including Abacus (Tied), Mainstreet (LPC +2), Liaison (LPC +4), Nanos (LPC +5), and Ipsos (LPC +6).
The national lead for the Liberals increased by one point, with the Liberals now six points ahead of the Conservatives (43% - 37%). The NDP remains at 9% nationally, while the Bloc is also steady at 6%.
The Liberal lead in Ontario dips one-point, with the NDP dropping further in the province, benefiting the Conservatives. Yet, given how many of the ridings play out, a lower NDP vote share in Ontario is benefiting the Liberals further in the seat count.
The one place the NDP increased its vote share is in the central prairies, with their share of the vote ticking up one point from yesterday to 15%.
Alberta saw the Liberals regain strength, inching up two-points to 31% in the province, while the Conservatives remain steady.
Next door in BC, the Liberals increased their lead in the averages by one-point, now at 42% to the Conservatives 39%.
The Liberals have ticked up in the seat count once again, while the Conservatives are now on par with their 2021 election finish. Let’s take a look at the model, its regionals, and break it down!