How Did The Polls Do On Average?
A quick look at how the polling averages did at capturing voter sentiment this election
With the election now over, let’s take a look at how the polling averages compared to the outcome of the election!
Right off the bat, the all parties were well within the margin of error on the national averages. The Conservatives did better than the polls suggested they would (Which has been a trend for the last few elections now), while the Liberals ended almost exactly where the polls said they would.
The Bloc’s share of the national vote was captured quite well, yet the NDP did worse than the polls suggested they would (Once again, another trend over the last few elections!). The Greens and PPC both did slightly worse than their polls said they would, with both parties ending around 1% nationally.
Ontario was the biggest story of the night, with an overperforming Conservative party taking 44% of the vote in the province, compared to the 41% the polling averages had them pegged at. The Liberals did slightly better than their averages to end at 49%, with the NDP underperforming theirs to end at 5%.
In Quebec, it was the Liberals and Bloc who overperformed their polling. The Liberals did three-points better than the polls said they would, while the Bloc did two-points better.
The Conservatives slightly underperformed the polls, getting 23% in the province, while the NDP was also lower at 5%. Even the Greens ended up lower than the polls, leaving them at 1% in the province.
British Columbia might be the one province where the polls captured voter sentiment the best. The Conservatives hit 41% in the province, which is exactly where the polls put them, while the Liberals were two-points higher on election night to end at 42%.
The NDP, as was the case in every single region this election, underperformed in their polling. They were slated to get 14% of the vote, while they ended up getting 13% in BC. The Greens were exactly on the money with 3% this election.
As is usually the case, the Conservatives outpaced the polls in Alberta once again. They finished three-points higher, leaving them at 63%. However, the Liberal rise in Alberta was accurately captured in the polls, with the Liberals slightly higher than the averages (Although it did little to win them seats in the province).
The NDP slipping three-points compared to their polling averages (which left them at 6% this election) was consequential in them losing Griesbach to the Conservatives. The Greens and PPC also ended up below 1% in Alberta after the results came in.
Similar to Alberta, the Conservatives overperformed their polling in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, leaving the party at 55% in the region, a full six-points ahead of the averages.
While the Liberals did perform admirably in the region, they fell short of the averages by three-points. The NDP also fell short by two-points, which helped them to lose a couple more seats in the area.
Lastly, the polls in Atlantic Canada accurately captured the Liberal share of the vote at 56%. The Conservatives ended up doing better on the East Coast than the polls said they would, ending at 38%.
The NDP fell to 4%, while the Greens and PPC were both at 1%, respectively.
So what’s the verdict? Were the pollsters good this election?
As I had been saying throughout the entirety of this election, the pollsters were accurately capturing the mood of the Canadian electorate. Some pollsters were slightly out to lunch, while some were incredibly close to the mark (Congratulations to Mainstreet!)
The only place the pollsters were off on average was the Conservative vote share in Ontario. However, a number of pollsters noticed a tightening in their Ontario samples ahead of the election, so it wasn’t a complete surprise!
Nonetheless, if anyone was concerned about a US-like polling miss this election, their concerns have been thoroughly quelled.