Liberals Hit 192 Seats in the Model as Opposition Stalls
Liberals gain ground nationwide as the honeymoon continues for Carney
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for July 12, 2025!
This week we had four new polls with the weekly Nanos update, Leger, Abacus, and Research Co.
Nanos found the Liberals at 45% (unchanged from last week), while the Conservatives rose to 33% (+2). The NDP slipped to 12% (-1), while the Bloc and Greens were at 6% (–) and 2% (-1), respectively.
Research Co released their first poll since the election, with results at 47% for the Liberals (+3 compared to the election), 37% for the Conservatives (-4), and 6% for the NDP (–). The Bloc and Greens were at 6% (–) and 2% (+1).
Leger also released their first post-election poll, showing a wide Liberal lead. Their survey found the Liberals at 48% (+4 from the election), while the Conservatives trailed at 35% (-6). The NDP held at 7% (+1), and the Bloc and Greens were at 6% (–) and 3% (+2), respectively.
Abacus remains something of an outlier among pollsters, showing a far more competitive race. They placed the Liberals at 41% (-1 from June 19) and the Conservatives at 40% (+1), marking the closest result of the batch. The NDP rose to 9% (+2), the Bloc ticked up to 7% (+1), and the Greens dropped to 2% (-1).
Overall, the averages saw the Liberal lead grow in Atlantic Canada (+1 from last week), Quebec (+1), and British Columbia (+3). Meanwhile, the Conservative lead in Alberta shrank (-3) but increased in the central Prairies (+3).
Let’s take a look at this week’s model!