Liberals Hold The Advantage Ahead Of Election
With an early election call increasingly likely this week, the Polling Canada model suggests the Liberals have an early head start over their rivals
If the rumours are to be believed, we’ll be heading for an election call sometime this week. Parliament was due to return early next week, but with the Liberals polling as high as they are, it’s likely Carney will want to take advantage of that and head into an election as soon as possible.
With that said, let’s take one final look at the averages ahead of this potential election call and see where the parties stand today!
Liberals and Conservatives Tied In The Averages
With the polls looking they way they do today, you’d be mistaken for thinking you woke up in an alternate timeline back in January. The Conservatives once held a 20-25 point lead on average only two months ago, but now the national averages have the Liberals ahead marginally.
There have been three polls where the Conservatives still maintain a lead over the Liberals nationally; Abacus, Innovative, and Nanos.
However, those three polls all produce Conservative minorities when you model them out, showing just how much the Conservatives have dipped from their polling high.
The Liberals have enjoyed some small leads from pollsters like Liaison and Mainstreet, while Leger has the two parties in a dead heat. Then you have the wildcard (And current outliers) from EKOS, with their online poll being much more believable than their IVR poll.
So, how do these polls average out both nationally and provincially, and what does the model tell us?