Near-Historic Majority Territory For PCs
With two and a half weeks until Ontarians head to the polls, Ford's Progressive Conservatives maintain a wide lead over their provincial rivals.
On February 27th, Ontarians will head to the polls to elect a new government. That government will be saddled with the ongoing threat of American tariffs and territorial expansionism, as well as the myriad of other issues that continue to affect the province and its institutions.
With the election little over half way done, let’s take a look at where the polls stand today.
Doug Ford Keeps Distance On Rivals
As of the past seven days, we’ve had seven pollsters release polling in Ontario. Every pollster is saying the same thing; Doug Ford is heading for another majority government.
The widest lead seen in the polling came from Leger, who found the Progressive Conservatives hold a 24-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, with the NDP behind at 17% and the Greens at 8% (Also the Green’s best poll out of the bunch).
The poll showing the closest race comes from Liaison Strategies, whose IVR poll showed the Progressive Conservatives ahead of the Liberals by only 10-points in the province, with the NDP back at 18% and the Greens at 6%.
The current provincial average sits at 45% for the Progressive Conservatives, with the Liberals 19-points behind at 26%, and the NDP rounding out at 19%. Schreiner’s Green Party sits at 6% and other parties make up about 3% on average.
Doug Ford performs better than his own party when the question about who would be the best Premier is asked. Abacus Data and Nanos Research both asked this question, with both yielding similar results for Ford.
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Abacus Data found 49% of Ontarians say Doug Ford would make the best premier of the four main candidates, with 24% saying Bonnie Crombie would be their top choice. Another 20% opt’d for Marit Stiles, with 6% saying Mike Schreiner would be the best choice for premier.
Similarly, 47% of Ontarians in Nanos’ polling say Ford would be the best choice for Premier, with 30% saying the same for Crombie. Stiles is further behind at 17%, with Schreiner remaining at 6%.
While Doug Ford is far ahead of the rest of the pack, how many seats does he pick up compared to his 2022 result of 83?
Here’s what a run of the Polling Canada averages for the province tells us.