No Strategic Vote? No Liberal Minority
Data suggests the Conservatives could have won a majority government without strategic voting efforts
With the election come and gone, and the dust now settled on the affair, we’re learning how the vote broke down across the nation.
One of the big questions raised this election was the importance, and effect, of strategic voting on behalf of the Liberals. While there were many factors at play, and not all who swung from minor parties to the Liberals were strategic voters, it had a notable impact on the results.
There’s no question the smaller parties suffered greatly thanks to strategic vote efforts, with the Bloc diminished, the Greens an MP down, and the NDP sitting on its worst ever election result.
So how would the election have played out if strategic voting didn’t take place? While we can’t answer that question for certain, we can take a nice crack at it with the data we have on hand.
Long story short, we wouldn’t be looking at a Carney minority today, instead we’d be looking at a Poilievre majority.