Weekly Polling Round-up #1
Round-up for July 22-28, 2023
Federal:
Nanos this week had Conservatives at 35%, Liberals at 29% and the NDP at 20%. Meanwhile, the Bloc sat at 7% (28% in Quebec) while the Greens and PPC sit at 6% and 2%, respectively.
Without giving numbers away (Paywalled) the most interesting regionals in this poll are in the Atlantic provinces where the Conservatives have a 21-point lead over the Liberals. Ontario is a close race and Quebec is a comfortable Liberal lead.
Abacus on the other hand provided us a clear Conservative win with the Tories polling 10-points ahead of the Liberals with the NDP unchanged. While topline for the Conservatives is inflated some by their wide-leads in the West, they’re still ahead in Ontario and only 10-points behind the Liberals in Quebec.
Meanwhile, the Atlantic provinces continue to remain close. Not quite a 21-point lead like Nanos, but still statistically tied.
Here’s the breakdown on the leads by region:
BC - CPC +14
AB - CPC +36
SK/MB - CPC +31
ON - CPC +6
QC - BQ +2
ATL - LPC +1
Leger also joined the crowd this week with a poll that went unpublished showing a 9-point Tory lead with the Liberals falling back to the high-20’s much like Nanos and Abacus.
The regional leads here are certainly more interesting:
BC - LPC +2
AB - CPC +40
SK/MB - CPC +22
ON - CPC +9
QC - BQ +3 (LPC at 28 and CPC at 25!)
ATL - LPC +1
Despite the Tories doing so well here, the Abacus poll is actually better for them when you model the results (172 seats for the CPC using Abacus, 170 using Leger, thanks to
modelling those out for me!)Enjoying this content? We’re focused on providing content and coverage free of charge to everyone. So if you like what you see, consider donating to Polling Canada over here!
Saskatchewan:
We were treated to a rare Saskatchewan poll this week from Insightrix.
Insightrix showed the Saskatchewan Party at 45%, down 16-points from the 2020 election while the NDP were up slightly to 36%.
The NDP still hold a 6-point lead in Regina over the SKP and a 16-point lead in Saskatoon. But the SKP dominate in the South (26-point lead) and the North (33-point lead).
The most surprising, and frankly odd, result were the PC’s at 10% in the province which would be up 8-points from their last election finish. For the record, the last time the PC’s scored higher than 10% in Sasktachewan was back in the 1995 election, the last election they won seats in.
The Saskatchewan United Party sits at 3% while the Greens, Liberals (Now Progress Party, logo needs to be updated on the site!) and Buffalo parties all sit at 2%.
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Ontario
Abacus also released an Ontario poll this week with a picture that is pretty unchanged compared to the 2022 election. The Greens are up a point, the NDP down a point, otherwise everything else is static at the topline.
Here’s the regional leads in Ontario:
Toronto - PC +9
GTHA - PC +18
Southwest - PC +19
Eastern - PC +17
Northern - Liberal +1